Robinhood Markets (HOOD) - Interactive FY28E Valuation

Mario Stefanidis | Flex revenue segments and valuation assumptions to visualize Dec 2028 implied stock price

Base case: continued product expansion, steady customer/deposit growth, positive operating leverage, Rothera partially live.
Transaction-Based Revenue (59% of FY25)
Options: Annual Contracts (B)3.4B
FY25A: 2.28B | #1 OCC share at 7.5%
Options: Take Rate ($/contract)$0.53
FY25A: ~$0.49 | Index options lift blended rate
Crypto: Annual Trading Volume ($B)$350B
FY25A: ~$244B (app + Bitstamp)
Crypto: Blended Take Rate (bps)34 bps
FY25A: ~37 bps blended | App: ~53 bps, Bitstamp: ~3.8 bps
Pred Mkts: HOOD Volume ($B)$80B
FY25A: ~$15-18B (est. 35% of Kalshi)
Pred Mkts: HOOD Take Rate (bps)130 bps
FY25A: ~100 bps ($0.01 per ~$0.50 avg contract) | Rothera: ~200 bps
Equities: Annual Notional Volume ($T)$3.5T
FY25A: ~$2.29T | Share recovering to ~1.1%
Equities: Take Rate (bps)1.3 bps
FY25A: ~1.3 bps | PFOF; potential tick size reform risk
Transaction Revenue Total: $4,300M (57% of total) | CAGR: 18%
Non-Transaction Revenue (41% of FY25)
NII: Avg Interest-Earning Assets ($B)$75B
FY25A: ~$62B (margin + sweep + sec lending + corp cash)
NII: Net Interest Spread (bps)350 bps
FY25A: ~244 bps | Higher margin mix lifts spread
Gold: Subscribers (M)8.5M
FY25A: 4.2M | 15.5% adoption | +58% y/y
Gold: Annual Sub Fee ($)$55
FY25A: ~$55 blended | $50/yr annual, $60/yr monthly
Gold: Other Rev per Sub (interchange, advisory)$22
FY25A: ~$36 | Card interchange + Strategies + proxy rev
Non-Transaction Revenue Total: $3,300M (43% of total) | CAGR: 22%
Valuation Assumptions
Adj. EBITDA Margin61.0%
FY25A: 56.4% | ~85% fixed cost structure
Target P/E Multiple28.0x
IBKR: 26x | SCHW: 14.5x | COIN: 45x
Effective Tax Rate22.0%
FY25A: 10.7% (benefited from DTA) | Normalized: ~21-22%
Diluted Shares (M)912M
FY25A: 914M | $1.5B buyback authorized Mar '26
D&A + Interest + Other ($M)$172M
D&A $118M + credit facility interest $40M + other $14M
Implied Dec 2028 Stock Price
$97.00
+47% cumulative
15.8% IRR
Current: $66.02 | ~2.75 yrs to Dec '28 | Loading...
Revenue Composition ($M)
Revenue Mix
Key Outputs
P/E Sensitivity (FY28E EPS x Multiple = Implied Price)
Peer Comparables (Street Estimates)
Source: S&P Capital IQ
Company Price Mkt Cap 25A EPS 26E EPS 27E EPS 28E EPS 25A P/E 26E P/E 27E P/E 28E P/E 25-28 CAGR
HOOD $66.02 $60B $2.06 $2.47 $3.02 $3.35 32.0x 26.7x 21.9x 18.8x 17.6%
IBKR $68.68 $113B $2.19 $2.47 $2.69 $3.17 31.4x 27.8x 25.5x 21.7x 13.1%
SCHW $94.99 $169B $5.11 $6.07 $6.98 $8.10 18.6x 15.6x 13.6x 11.7x 16.6%
COIN $181.10 $51B $4.16 $3.28 $5.71 $6.48 43.5x 55.2x 31.7x 27.9x 15.9%
ETOR $29.70 $2.6B $2.25 $2.48 $2.99 $3.60 13.2x 12.0x 9.9x 8.3x 17.0%
LPLA $300.68 $24B $20.09 $23.85 $28.88 $34.27 15.0x 12.6x 10.4x 8.8x 19.5%
Mean 24.7x 24.8x 18.8x 16.2x 15.7%
Median 18.6x 15.6x 13.6x 11.7x 15.9%
Base Case

Transaction-Based Revenue

InputDefaultFY25ARationale
Options contracts3.42.28B
Options take rate0.53~$0.49
Crypto volume350~$244B
Crypto take rate34~37 bps
Pred mkts HOOD volume40~$15-18B
Pred mkts take rate100~100 bps
Equities volume3.5~$2.29T
Equities take rate1.3~1.3 bps

Non-Transaction Revenue

InputDefaultFY25ARationale
Interest-earning assets75~$62B
Net interest spread315~244 bps
Gold subscribers8.54.2M
Gold annual sub fee55~$55
Gold other rev/sub22~$36

Valuation

InputDefaultFY25ARationale
EBITDA margin6156.4%
P/E multiple28~19x FY28E
Tax rate2210.7%
Diluted shares912914M
D&A + Int + Other172~$132M

Key Sensitivities

The thesis survives even if the two most aggressive assumptions are halved.

ScenarioChangeRevenue ImpactImplied Stock PriceUpside from $66
NII spread at 280 bps (vs 350) Spread -70 bps NII falls from $2,625M to $2,100M (-$525M) ~$82 +24%
Pred mkts take rate at 10 bps (no Rothera) Take rate -20 bps Pred rev falls from $240M to $80M (-$160M) ~$93 +41%
Both NII + pred mkts combined Worst case on both Total revenue -$685M ~$80 +21%
Crypto volume at $200B (bear) Volume -43% Crypto rev falls from $1,190M to $680M (-$510M) ~$84 +27%
P/E compresses to 22x Multiple -21% No revenue change ~$76 +15%

All estimates are the author's own. FY25A figures sourced from Robinhood's 4Q25/FY25 earnings release and 10-K. Market share data from OCC, CBOE. Prediction market volume from Artemis. Peer data from FactSet.